American Interest Rates, Whereto?

American Interest Rates, Whereto?

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The Fed is again making noises about raising interest rates. But is not very convincing, and the markets are not taking them too seriously.

The Fed itself doesn’t seem to be very clear on what is happening to the US and World economy, nor clear about what the best course of action is. Consequently, it is emitting confused and confusing signals. Continue reading “American Interest Rates, Whereto?”

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ITS NOT A TIDE FOR THE KURDS, IT’S A FLOOD

ITS NOT A TIDE FOR THE KURDS, IT’S A FLOOD

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A few days ago we observed that the ebb and flow of politics seemed to indicate that the Kurds, after taking Manbij, will keep their head low and avoid antagonizing Turkey. They didn’t, and continued northwards towards Jarabulus on the Turkish/Syrian Border.

Turkey was ready and certainly able. Following two days of artillery pounding, Turkish tanks rolled into Syria yesterday, thus realizing the long-expected scenario of a Turkish military presence inside Syria.

The pretexts and justifications for this action may be “dime a dozen”, but once inside, they become difficult to dislodge and eject. A similar situation has existed in north Iraq near Mosul, for almost a year now. Continue reading “ITS NOT A TIDE FOR THE KURDS, IT’S A FLOOD”

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Is it time to buy US property?

Is it time to buy US property?

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It seems that the US house prices are at a fork juncture. Overall sales have dropped in July, after four months of increasing. The explanation expounded by the real estate “experts” is a combination of, too few houses available for sale on the market, and higher prices that have risen around 5% compared to last year. This has resulted in less choice for buyers and the absence of attractively cheap prices.

The Western US is the only region that saw sales increase and the average home price was at around US$ 350,000. The North East averaged around US$ 285,000, the Midwest around US$ 195,000 and the south East around US$ 215,000. Continue reading “Is it time to buy US property?”

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OIL PRICE PLAYING ON A SEE-SAW – IGNORING INVESTMENT IN OIL

OIL PRICE PLAYING ON A SEE-SAW – IGNORING INVESTMENT IN OIL

There is now a consensus that the 20% oil price rally in August wasn’t sustainable. It was a purely technical issue with the short sellers scrambling to cover their positions. The fundamentals of oil supply and demand remain imbalanced and could remain so until the end of 2016 or probably well into 2017.

Of course, an agreement between the major oil producers to freeze production, will put an immediate stop to this lose-lose situation and raise prices to levels more acceptable to the deficit laden producers. The OPEC September meeting is scheduled, theoretically, to do that, and the Saudi oil minister has alluded as much. Continue reading “OIL PRICE PLAYING ON A SEE-SAW – IGNORING INVESTMENT IN OIL”

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THE EBB AND FLOW OF POLITICS

THE EBB AND FLOW OF POLITICS !

Conditions, circumstances and opportunities are continuously changing, and accordingly, political positions change.

TURKEY

For five years, Turkey was dead against Assad of Syria. In fact, it took the leading role in inflaming the Syrian, so-called, civil war and was the vanguard in calling and working for Syria’s Assad ouster.

Then a series of events took place. Turkey got carried away and shot a Russian fighter jet, Crippling Russian economic sanctions were placed on Turkey, the long established Turkish Kurdish ceasefire collapsed and a mini Turkish civil war commenced, the Turkish tourist industry all but collapsed, the Syrian army pulled back from the brink of defeat with Russian air power intervention, the EU reneged on all its promises to Turkey, The USA became uneasy about Turkish policies and made it obvious by supporting the Syrian Kurds to probably create their own state in northern Syria, ISIS began targeting Turkish cities, Turkey became isolated geopolitically and then, came the attempted Turkish military coup to oust the president, which was rumored to have been instigated and/or blessed by the American CIA. The last event was the “straw that broke the camel’s back” causing Turkey to change its policies dramatically. Continue reading “THE EBB AND FLOW OF POLITICS”

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KUWAIT BUDGET DEFICIT SOLUTIONS

THE PROPOSED SOLUTIONS FOR THE DEFICIT ARE INSUFFICIENT

With the shrinking of our income, we have begun to dig up old ledgers in search of scapegoats to blame for the loss of revenue, and thence, in search of someone to burden with our expenses and free more net income for us.

This is very normal thinking and reflects commercial shrewdness usually restricted to private companies.

But, even private companies sometimes fail in tackling excess expenses over revenues, and are forced into bankruptcy, while others downsize to a fraction of their previous self, and a few, find salvation by merging with bigger companies, or with similar but more successful and profitable ones. Continue reading “KUWAIT BUDGET DEFICIT SOLUTIONS”

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