Ukraine army on high alert against Russian hypothetical strike

DAILY BASKET OF COMMENTARIES

Ukraine army on high alert against Russian hypothetical strike

Summary:
Russia announced yesterday (Aug 10, 2016) that it discovered a Ukrainian terrorist plot in Crimea.
The Ukrainian government seems to have panicked and is calling up the leaders of Russia, Germany, France, the USA, and the president of the European Council. Also, it has requested an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council to discuss the tensions between itself and Russia.

Likely Beneficiaries:
NATO: as it fits within its strategy of squeezing Russia and painting it as an aggressor vis-a-vi the Ukraine.
Ukraine Government: preempt a possible Russian strike and deflect attention from the foiled plot.
USA: It is in the driving seat of NATO.

Likely losers:
Ukrainian Citizens: The tragic war saga continues and they continue to suffer and go deeper into poverty.
EU Citizens: They continue to be herded into a corner that has only “Loss” outcomes.
World Peace: the continuous escalation of tensions by NATO, reduce the chances of avoiding a third world war.

Timing:
The discovery of the terrorist plot made necessary to immediately “Cry Wolf” lest the hypothetical wolf loses his patience and actually reacts. Does this reaction lend credence to the plot, which justifies this panic?

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THE WILY FOX

SATIRE : A SHORT STORY
THE WILY FOX

A sevFoxere drought hit the jungle, and the pastures became barren. The herbivores either died of starvation or migrated to greener leas. The carnivores also suffered as their prey shrank, and they verged on cannibalism. After a series of urgent meetings, the carnivores decided the immediate short-term solution lay in their invading the neighboring jungle and enslaving a stock of herbivores to last them until matters improved.

THE RAID

Accordingly, the next morning an army of carnivores set out under the leadership of the Lion. It was made up of six brigades representing the Lions, Tigers, Leopards, Hyenas, Wolves and a brigade for the rest of the carnivores. The Fox tried to obtain the prestige of a separate brigade for the foxes, but was rejected by the Lion who sarcastically replied: “Thank your stars that we classify you as carnivores, otherwise we would have had you for breakfast together with the two lambs we enjoyed. Go back to your brigade, runt”. The Fox had no choice but to accept the Lion’s decision, however it left such a bad taste in his mouth that he promised himself to pay it back, with interest. Continue reading “THE WILY FOX”

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OIL WARS – The Coming New Disaster?

OIL WARS – The Coming New Disaster?
By: Marwan Salamah*
Dec 25, 2014

If protecting market share is OPEC’s primary objective in not reducing oil production, and if oil prices remain depressed or continue their downward journey over the next few months, then it becomes only a matter of time before OPEC members begin to pounce on each other’s market shares and on non-OPEC shares.

In such a scenario, the outcome is likely to be in favor of whoever has the lowest cash production costs and the highest surplus funds to weather the oil revenues squeeze. Of the big producers, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are the best positioned to win such a price war and Venezuela and Nigeria are likely to be the biggest losers followed at some distance by Iran, Iraq and then Russia.

There are many possible outcomes. One is where Venezuela goes bankrupt and implodes politically. This could lead to government change, which probably is not an unwelcome outcome for the USA. Continue reading “OIL WARS – The Coming New Disaster?”

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THE OIL PRICE CRASH WAS INEVITABLE

THE OIL PRICE CRASH WAS INEVITABLE
Marwan Salamah*
Dec 23, 2014

Four years ago, we published in www.asmainfo.com, the Arab Stock Market Analysis website, a technical analysis forecast of crude oil prices which indicated the likelihood of oil prices dropping in 2014 towards US$ 33 per barrel ! Technical Analysis is a mathematical statistical tool to identify trends and possible future prices and as such sees what the naked eye, used to empirical evidence, does not see.

Even a non-expert in technical analysis can see from the attached graph that the oil price rise between 2003 and 2008 was very high and steep thus inviting a steep downward correction. Another steep rise occurred in the period between 2008 and 2014.

oil price techincal chart
oil price techincal chart

However, there is a sunny side to this storm. The same analysis indicated the possibility of oil prices rebounding up towards the US$ 200 – 250 range in a few years. But, such a rebound would be conditional on the World’s presently weak economies regaining their vitality, no alternative to oil is discovered and no devastating regional or world wars occur.

As for the direct causes of the recent crash of oil prices, a number of negative events came into play in close proximity of each other. The first was the rapid commercial development of Shale oil production and Fracking, which elevated the U.S. to become the world’s largest oil producer and dramatically shrinking its dependence on oil imports (It is now forecast to become a net exporter of oil in a couple of years). The second was the inability of the European economies to shake off their post 2008 recessions in addition to the slowdown in the Chinese, Indian and the Third World economies. Thirdly, the oil producers continued their pre-recessions production levels throughout this period. Continue reading “THE OIL PRICE CRASH WAS INEVITABLE”

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