Is it time to buy US property?

Is it time to buy US property?

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It seems that the US house prices are at a fork juncture. Overall sales have dropped in July, after four months of increasing. The explanation expounded by the real estate “experts” is a combination of, too few houses available for sale on the market, and higher prices that have risen around 5% compared to last year. This has resulted in less choice for buyers and the absence of attractively cheap prices.

The Western US is the only region that saw sales increase and the average home price was at around US$ 350,000. The North East averaged around US$ 285,000, the Midwest around US$ 195,000 and the south East around US$ 215,000. Continue reading “Is it time to buy US property?”

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THE EBB AND FLOW OF POLITICS

THE EBB AND FLOW OF POLITICS !

Conditions, circumstances and opportunities are continuously changing, and accordingly, political positions change.

TURKEY

For five years, Turkey was dead against Assad of Syria. In fact, it took the leading role in inflaming the Syrian, so-called, civil war and was the vanguard in calling and working for Syria’s Assad ouster.

Then a series of events took place. Turkey got carried away and shot a Russian fighter jet, Crippling Russian economic sanctions were placed on Turkey, the long established Turkish Kurdish ceasefire collapsed and a mini Turkish civil war commenced, the Turkish tourist industry all but collapsed, the Syrian army pulled back from the brink of defeat with Russian air power intervention, the EU reneged on all its promises to Turkey, The USA became uneasy about Turkish policies and made it obvious by supporting the Syrian Kurds to probably create their own state in northern Syria, ISIS began targeting Turkish cities, Turkey became isolated geopolitically and then, came the attempted Turkish military coup to oust the president, which was rumored to have been instigated and/or blessed by the American CIA. The last event was the “straw that broke the camel’s back” causing Turkey to change its policies dramatically. Continue reading “THE EBB AND FLOW OF POLITICS”

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RUSSIAN BOMBERS BASED IN IRAN!

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RUSSIAN BOMBERS BASED IN IRAN!

Wow, So many birds with one stone. Is this a game changer in the Middle East?

It was reported yesterday (Tue Aug 16, 2016) that long range Russian bombers flew out of an Iranian military airfield to bomb targets in Aleppo, Syria. This is the first time in over thirty years that a foreign a military presence is seen in Iran. And a first for the Russian military in Iran. What does this mean?

LIKELY BENEFICIARIES:

The Syrian regime: especially as far as the battle of Aleppo is concerned. It gives Russian bombers better logistics and efficacy (Shorter flight time and, hence, more strikes per plane). Continue reading “RUSSIAN BOMBERS BASED IN IRAN!”

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E-COMMERCE IMPACTS TRADITIONAL RETAIL BUSINESS

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E-COMMERCE IMPACTS TRADITIONAL RETAIL BUSINESS

The war of attrition between e-commerce and traditional retailing business just got bloodier.

Macy’s, the famous US department store chain is closing down 100 stores, which represents 15% of its total stores. Other US retailers are also closing stores by the hundreds. Walmart, the biggest, will shut down 450 stores. So far this year, some 44,000 retail employees have been laid off. A good part of this is due to heavy competition from the Amazon e-commerce machine.

Walmart just paid US$ 3.3 Billion to buy jet.com, an aggressive e-commerce retailer, to counter Amazon and expand its e-commerce market share, which is presently at the US$ 12.5 Billion compared to Amazon’s US$ 80 Billion. (Walmart’s total sales are US$ 482 Billion).

This represents a structural change in the US market, which will, sooner or later, impact commercial real estate and pull it down. Ergo, don’t expect US commercial real estate booms in the foreseeable future.

However, real estate is a long-term investment and, as long as landlords curb their enthusiasm and greed, to accept a theoretically realistic return of 5%, they should weather the coming storm – provided they had bought their properties prudently, i.e. not paid top Dollar at the cycle peaks and with borrowed money.

As all US trends eventually spread throughout the world (usually over a 5 – 15 years’ span), it would be wise for the rest of the world to prepare for the conquest of e-commerce over traditional retail space.

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Ukraine army on high alert against Russian hypothetical strike

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Ukraine army on high alert against Russian hypothetical strike

Summary:
Russia announced yesterday (Aug 10, 2016) that it discovered a Ukrainian terrorist plot in Crimea.
The Ukrainian government seems to have panicked and is calling up the leaders of Russia, Germany, France, the USA, and the president of the European Council. Also, it has requested an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council to discuss the tensions between itself and Russia.

Likely Beneficiaries:
NATO: as it fits within its strategy of squeezing Russia and painting it as an aggressor vis-a-vi the Ukraine.
Ukraine Government: preempt a possible Russian strike and deflect attention from the foiled plot.
USA: It is in the driving seat of NATO.

Likely losers:
Ukrainian Citizens: The tragic war saga continues and they continue to suffer and go deeper into poverty.
EU Citizens: They continue to be herded into a corner that has only “Loss” outcomes.
World Peace: the continuous escalation of tensions by NATO, reduce the chances of avoiding a third world war.

Timing:
The discovery of the terrorist plot made necessary to immediately “Cry Wolf” lest the hypothetical wolf loses his patience and actually reacts. Does this reaction lend credence to the plot, which justifies this panic?

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