DAILY BASKET – NEWS COMMENTARY
Turkey Announces End of Military Action in Syria?
MARSAL COMMENTS: Turkey has just announced that its objectives for it military incursion into Syria have been accomplished by its taking control of the Syrian town of Al-Bab from ISIS.
Everyone expected Turkey to continue deeper into Syria, or at least, create a Turkish controlled “Safe Zone” in the territory it occupies. So, this is a bit of a surprise – or is it?
Turkish basic objective is to frustrate the Kurds’ attempt to link up their East and Western territories, which could graduate into a Kurdish independent state or autonomous region. Either way, it is a threat to Turkey especially as its own large Kurdish minority are agitating more aggressively.
Additionally, The US Secretary of State will shortly visit Turkey, and this could be a tactic to pry the US away from its military support of the Kurds fighting ISIS.
Turkey’s alliances are becoming prone to sudden changes (even reversals). Is that because it keeps changing its mind, or just short term tactics in an unchanged strategy?
NEGATIVE FOR: Kurds, Syria (especially if this is the end of one operation, and another begins)
POSITIVE FOR: US if it can get Turkey back in step with its policies.
IMPACT POTENTIAL: Medium to High
TIME SCOPE: Short to Medium Term