DAILY BASKET – NEWS COMMENTARY
Turkey Credit Rating Lowered
MARSAL COMMENTS: Moody’s credit rating agency has downgraded Turkey’s credit rating rank to “Negative. Fitch Agency also rates it at that level. The Turkish Lira has reacted by dropping a little.
Moody’s is justifying this downgrading by saying: “The impact of ongoing political and geopolitical tensions on domestic confidence, and the heightened external pressures that led to a steep depreciation of the lira and high inflation, will suppress growth in the near-term relative to expectations last year.” In other words, they are, erroneously, attributing it solely to political causes. However, the problems may be more fundamental than that. Turkey’s phenomenal growth for the past 10 – 20 years has been running hot on borrowed money, and with rising interest rates, they could be in for a lot more pressure in the coming years. This may be a shock to the fans of the “Turkish Economic Miracle”, But this correction may have been overdue.
GENERALLY: Pessimistic for Turkey
NEGATIVE FOR: Turkey, GCC investors
POSITIVE FOR: Russia, Iran and the EU
IMPACT POTENTIAL: High
TIME SCOPE: Short and Medium Term
READ ORIGINAL: Turkey Outlook Cut to Negative by Moody’s on Political Woes