DAILY BASKET – NEWS COMMENTARY
IS A US RECESSION LIKELY?
MARSAL COMMENTS: The February US Treasury statement indicated a growing budget deficit. The 12 month running revenue was less 1.1% compared to one year ago, while spending increased 3.8%! (A record since 2008).
Analysts are worried that for the past 47 years, every time government revenue turned negative, a recession appeared – including July 2008.
The reason seems to be a drop in corporate tax collections. Is US business performing so badly across the board?
Another worry is that the biggest tax of all, personal income taxes, are marginally higher on an annualized basis, but beginning to drop on a monthly.
How will Trump cut taxes? How will he spend US 1 – 4.5 Trillion to rebuild American infrastructure? The Number simply don’t add up.
GENERALLY: Pessimistic, unless major US world policy is changed, and military spending is reduced.
NEGATIVE FOR: US and eventually the rest of the world.
POSITIVE FOR: No one.
IMPACT POTENTIAL: High
TIME SCOPE: (Medium and Long Term)