COMMENTS: The insistence of the US to implement its harsh sanctions on Iran while at the same time implementing sanctions on Russia, China, North Korea, Venezuela, etc. And threatening the EU and the rest of the world, if they move a finger in Iran’s aid, might in the end turn cornered victims into roaring lions.
The EU officials are unhappy and are making it quite clear in various speeches and press releases. The Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has indicated that Germany, France and the UK are likely to flaunt the sanctions, albeit without putting themselves in the direct line of US fire. They may choose bypassing the Dollar in their trade with Iran. We will soon see. The first batch of sanctions start on Aug 4th and the next, on oil and banking in November.
NEGATIVE FOR: all the world. Disruptions are always negative and costly. The battle has not yet begun, and the opponents are still circling each other and make threatening noises. Once the round one bell of actual war begins, we will see who remains in the arena and who flees. However, if the “strong” remain, it can become painful to all, but especially for the US who could harm its own currency, the Dollar.
POSITIVE FOR: The sanctioned countries if they are able to overcome the sanctions.
IMPACT POTENTIAL: High
TIME SCOPE: Short to Medium Term